Dow bear market rallies

Everything points to us being in an equities bear market now. The October rally failed neatly at the head and shoulders neckline after which it formed a symmetrical triangle. The downside break from that confirmed the bear bias now gripping the market. The rally of he past couple of days is unconvincing although a test of the traingle breakout at around 11700 is a possibility. Only a rise above the recent traingle top would negate the bearish outlook.

Qantas reverses

Well qantas looked promising but I did say $1.80 might stop it. It barely made that level and has now failed by falling back inside the neckline of the head and shoulders bottomand also reaking a small uptrend line. Disappointing but not all technical patterns come to pass. There was some money in this one but I'd call it a failure really. Waiting for the next pattern to emerge now.

National Australia Bank in middle of channel

After hitting the top of the channel as shown above NAB has moved to the middle of the channel. The important levels are plain to see and the next trading opportunity will eventuate when either the lower boundary is reached or an upside breakout occurs.

Cotton futures make a break for it

I'm not really interested in what the news is or what the fundamentals are. All I know is that this chart is telling me if I was long I'd be very afraid. This continuous cotton futures chart shows a break down out of a head and shoulders continuation pattern with increasing spread and closing near its lows. The only saving grace could be the lack of volume but given this is a continuous chart that may just be a factor of he December contract petering out. I'd expect at least an 18.00 fall from here to around 77.00. If it can regain that lower boundary line shown on this chart and move above 105.00 I'd reconsider. But for now the path of least resistance is down.

S&P500 index coiled and ready

The S&P500 index is tightly coiled in a small triangle poised for the next major move. After stopping near the neckline of the August breakout activity has slowed as the bulls and bears battle for supremacy. My preference would be for a downside break from this triangle but lets let the market show us.

Apple (AAPL) Broadening Top?

Is Apple forming a broadening top? The horizontal lower boundary at 353-354 represents a crucial level for Apple. An island reversal signalled the third top in this pattern in October followed by a small triangle formed on dercreasing volume. The measuring formula from this type of patten should Apple break clearly below 353 is minimum around 280. Unwise to pre-empt this move. To me charting is all about breakouts. But people sometimes do on this pattern.

Euro FX - fails again

Since breaking down out of a channel in early September the Euro has now made two attempts to push back inside that channel - just after the breakout and near the end of October. Both rallies were rejected giving this channel line some importance. We also now have a sort of broadening wedge from the April top and the most logical next move would seem to be a test of the lower boundary line of that near 1.3000. That should now be support. A break of the upper line of this broadening pattern would be significant. So short -term and medium term down but watch for a breakout.

Gold

Gold has certainly rallied more than I expected having breezed through what I expected would be stiff resistance at $1700. Until it makes a new all-time high I'd have to remain bearish. We now have a channel pattern having formed with the lower boundary, to me, looking like it wants to be revisited around the $1700 level. It just feels like a lot of space needs filling there. On the other side A push through $1800 would see a swift test of the all-time high around $1900 I suspect. Watch for the breakout of this channel and the $1800 level.

Silver

Spot silver has some clearly defined boundaries to contend with. Sitting within a rising wedge within a larger downward channel the breakout points to watch are obvious. These situations demand a wait and see approach. I'm always looking for breakouts, not trying to anticipate them.

FTSE 100 Long-term chart

The Footsie (FT100 - UK stockmarket) shows similarities to the 2007 top. Watch this video to see the important support and resistance points to watch out for.

Dow Downside risk severe

The US equities markets sit on a knife edge still. The downside risk now is emmense. I feel it could traverse to the 10500 level  in a very short space of time even within a day. The global debt uncertainty has created the environment for a total absence of buyers. Technically the market has tested the neckline a couple of times and been forced back. Certainly if the high of the past 2 weeks is taken out I would turn mildly bullish but I prefer the downside. Beware!!!

Silver Wedge bear setup

Finally silver is exhibiting some recognisable patterns and clear boundaries for traders to trade on. Notice the downtrend channel from the April top with an internal little wedge. Watch a break of both these patterns for an indicator of the next medium-term and major trends. The wedge feels like we need to see a downside test of the channel even if an upside test of the smaller wedge comes first.

Aussie Danger

The Australian dollar is in big trouble here. Possibility of a rally back up to 1.0200 but 96.000 is the next target count from this hourly chart showing a head and shoulders. The feeling isn't great across all financial markets and some "freefalls" in equities as well look to be setting themselves up. The end game has only just begun unfortunately.

Newscorp - same channel

Newscorp is exhibiting a similar channel pattern to National Australia Bank and is testing the upside of that. Any upside break from this should be watched for increasing volume and a good clearance for this to be a change of trend. More likely at the moment this trendline touch will prove stiff resistance. Note the decreasing volume on the recent rise indicating a reduction in buying power. If this trendline  upper boundary holds the bottom of the channel would be the next likely target.

NAB channel-bound

National Australia Bank has formed a clear downward sloping channel now and could well test the upside again in the next week or two. Should it fail at this line again we could well see a retest of the lower boundary in the 18-20 range. Watch for a clear breakout of this channel on the upside on increasing volume before considering NAB bullish. So far the upmoves have been on decreasing volume which isn't a positive sign.

Euro far from clear but downside more likely

Pretty hard picking the Euro from day to day or even medium term. But it is hitting some important marks. It stopped right at the underside of a trendline stretching back to 2010 and also at the breakout of a very messy triangle. a big drop from there with a quiet inside day suggests another move down is the most likely. I'd seriously think about big upside potential if the Euro can manage a decent break above the down trendline shown starting in April and touching again in August. Until then the trend is down.

Dow poised at crossroads

The Dow is at a dangerous juncture. On an hourly chart above it looks like the common head and shoulders pattern again. A clear break below this neckline would signal a 1000 -1100 fall at least. It can also just be seen on he daily chart below. I'd rethink my immediate bearish scenario if the recent 12280 level were to be taken out by a good margin.

Qantas makes a move

Interesting to look an individual stock/share for a change. Qantas has been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately with strikes and the grounding of its fleet. Despite being in the depths of despair Qantas actually took on a positive look on the charts. A clear head and shoulders bottom has formed since August with a break up through the neckline on very good volume. That's what you want to see on a break. The minimum upside count is $1.80 with the possibility of a retest of the neckline first. Given the exhaustion gap in August this could well be a major bottom for Qantas. I temper my enthusiasm with a warning that I believe global equity markets are in the last throes of a bear market rally.