Copper triangle awaits breakout

We have some clear boundaries now in March 2012 copper futures. the converging pattern since October invites patience for a clear breakout. More likely a continuation of the previous downtrend but let the market show. A good strategy could be to use options either side of the boundaries.

Newscorp channel break unconvincing

In an earlier blog I suggested the downward sloping channel in Newscorp should be watched for reversals at channel boundaries or a break through the upper boundary for a change of trend. Well Newscorp has pierced the upper line on the weekly chart above. However the move is unconvincing. Note the lack of increase in volume on the breakout and the fall off in volume in general as Newscorp rallied from its June low. I'd like to see a significant pick-up in volume of shares traded on any new advance to be convinced this is the start of any major move.

Sugar Wedge forming

After its triple top break in September the Sugar continuous chart has been forming a neat downward sloping wedge. Volume has dropped off and trading boundaries have converged. Watch for a break out of the top line of this wedge. Until then the trend remains down with the horizontal support line in Nov/Dec indicating where a further down-leg would commence if broken.

S&P 500 marking time but still bearish

The S&P 500 is still in bear mode after its fall from a head and shoulders top in August. The rally back the the neckline was classic charting. The oscillations in narrowing ranges since then also fit within what is becoming a channel or flag. So there are some clearly defined levels to watch now. ON the downside the uptrend line from the 1073 low in early October.There is also the support line linking that August low with a slightly lower low  back in July 2010.

On he upside there are several important levels of interest. A signal another upleg is coming would start with a break above the down-sloping line linking the right shoulder in July with the recent test of the neckline. The next resistance level to overcome would be the right shoulder and head themselves.

The most likely scenario still seems to me to be we will test the 2009 lows.

Spot Gold bullish short term, bearish long-term

View my video of spot gold action since making its top. I expect a short-term bounce after Friday's outside range day and strong close but there is no sign that a major uptrend is about to emerge any time soon. I think it is more likely recent lows will be taken out with a retracement back to the 1000 level. But I'll wait for the break.