One of the trading skills I've still to master is patience. Too often I've tried to jump into a market too early or taken profits too soon. As a long-term trend trader patience is essential.
For a trend trader the AUD/USD ( much like GBP/USD did) has tested the patience for a painful length of time. But I'm sure my patience will be rewarded when a break of the bboundaries in the above chart finally happens.
First will come a break of the more recent 1.0600 to 1.0200 range. An initial 4 cent range can be expected on a clear close outside this range. I don't know which way. It's not the way I trade. I try not to pre-judge. So on a break the minimum targets should be either 1.1000 or 98.00.
A much bigger move is possible if the larger symmetrical triangle shown is broken. At the moment the boundaries of the triangle are roughly 98.00 and 1.0500. So the upside boundary is so close to the rectangle 1.0600 that I think you'd just go with the 1.06 level as the breakout point. Interestingly the Aussie did break out just above the triangle to about 1.0580 for 2 days a few weeks ago but failed to close outside it for the week. The proximity of the 1.0600 and non-clearance of it would have served as a warning.
Using the larger traingle formation, a clear break of its boundaries would signal a possible hefty 16 cent move to either 1.22 on the upside or 0.82 on the downside.
Remember I'm not a financial advisor so you should contact a registered one before making any trading decisions. Always trade with stops.
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