In my previous Aussie dollar post I'd put a watch on a break out of a triangle pattern which seemed to be developing. The Aussie broke upside with a close at .9381 on June 11th and continued strongly for a couple of days as it approached a recent high.
However, I admit to being disappointed at the ensuing pull-back. I would have expected this to hold above the upper boundary of the triangle but today's close gives cause for concern. Sometimes market do slightly creep back inside formations before taking off again. The Aussie would need to show signs of quick recovery from here for me to regain confidence. I think it wiser to stand aside though and await a confirmation above a new upper line drawn above and being at the level of last week's .9435 high.
The alternative is that we are going to re-test the .9200 level. AS I said, disappointing this hasn't followed through on the upside but sometimes patterns do fail. I have to admit I've always been a bit sceptical of upside breakouts from flat bottom triangles. They are more often a bear market pattern.
But let's wait and see what develops now. The important levels are still close and I'm sure another opportunity will present itself soon.
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